Or, just anecdotally, a sports radio host has had five guests on over the course of the week and they all like the same team. Frequently, a game will land at 51% of the bets one way and 49% the other, or even 55-45 or 60-40, and there is no obvious public side.īut sometimes, the bets run 75-25 one way. A sportsbook’s goal is usually to be as close to a 50-50 betting split as possible to guarantee a profit no matter who wins, thanks to the vig. In the case of many games, there isn’t a clear “public” side. If the public wasn’t on the wrong side most of the time, they wouldn’t be able to keep building them.” Look at all those gigantic casinos in Vegas. “Yep, when the public is all going one way, you have to bet against them.” So you just know the Vikings are going to cover.” Something is fishy here, it’s so one-sided. Everyone is taking their side of the line. In sports betting you either win or you don’t and if you happen to go against the huge public favorites, you’ll find yourself winning more often than not.If you’ve watched or listened to any sports TV/radio/podcast conversations from media members with an interest in betting, you’ve surely heard a few discussions like this one, especially in the last couple of years as regulated sports gambling has picked up steam: The second scenario might be a little bit easier on your stomach, but your bet pays the same amount. Likewise, a number of the games that you win will be nail-biters, but once again, having your seven-point underdog lose 20-14 is no different than watching them win 28-17. As a result, you’re frequently going to be on some ugly teams and are you going to suffer your share of blowout losses, but remember that you don’t get style points in sports betting and losing 38-7 with a seven-point underdog is no worse than losing 21-13. You’ll notice that both methods that were mentioned have you jumping in when at least three out of four bets are coming in on one team and then going the other way. How to Profit from NFL Public Betting PercentagesĬlosely related is taking NFL road underdogs who are receiving 20% or fewer of the wagers on a game, as these teams have covered the spread close to 57% over the past 10 seasons. Whether it’s a belief in the old adage of two heads being better than one and since everybody agrees they must be right, or just a feeling of camaraderie by needing the same side as everybody else, these bettors find a degree of comfort in the safety in numbers train of thought. Some bettors like to be on the same teams as their fellow gamblers and look for those games in which there appears to be a consensus on one team. People will use public betting percentages in several different ways. You won’t be able to make a precise guess, but if the public betting percentages were showing 50% of the wagers on the Bears and 50% of the wagers on the Jets and the line moved from New York -1 to New York -2.5 you could reasonably conclude that more money is coming in on the Jets, even though the number of bets are the same. While the sportsbooks won’t release the information, many times you can get an idea of which way the money is coming in on a game by watching the line movement. Using the example above, the Jets would be receiving 500 times the amount of money bet than the Bears.
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